A Proposal for Political Confrontation with the Escalation in the North

The situation in the north of the country is worsening. The tension with Hezbollah is rising and swelling, the army is preparing for a broad confrontation, citizens live in fear, and the political and military leadership once again stands before the same familiar abyss: the possibility of fleeing to force, to fire, to the planes, to grand promises, to “decision,” to a “victory picture,” to the same old language that has repeatedly led us to destruction, bereavement, disappointment, and bitter disillusionment.

But I wish to propose here a different victory. Not an absolute victory of iron and fire, but a true absolute victory:The victory of reason.

The victory of reason - the choice of life

This victory is not achieved with chariots and a great army. Not with planes. Not with advanced weapon systems. Not with belligerent declarations from television studios. It is achieved with much deeper courage: the ability to stop within the fear, to look squarely at reality, to recognize the limits of force, to heal from the trauma, and not to let that cursed Sabbath (7.10) manage our future forever.

There is no doubt that we face a difficult, stubborn, armed, and dangerous enemy. Hezbollah chose from the outset a forceful, cruel, and asymmetric struggle. It seeks to exhaust the home front, to damage the sense of security, to hold tens of thousands of citizens far from their homes, and to impose on Israel a long war under conditions unfavorable to it.

But precisely because of this, we must not enter the field that it has chosen for us. We must not swallow the bait. We must not turn fear into a doctrine of security.

If the enemy seeks to impose on us an asymmetric war—we must impose on it a completely different struggle: a struggle of reason, discipline, patience, Righteousness and Justice, political responsibility, strengthening the home front, standing firm on the border without being drawn into a regional adventure whose end is unknown.

These are not empty words. This is a strategy.

Our greatest obstacle is not Hezbollah alone. The greatest obstacle is the loss of internal security, haste, arrogance, and the cult of “my power and the might of my hand.” When a people loses its faith, it seeks security in force. When leadership loses its way, it seeks a solution in war. When an army fails, it is tempted to prove itself with another campaign. And so, instead of healing the failure—it deepens it.

History teaches this again and again.

The American involvement in Vietnam 1965–1973

The United States entered Vietnam with enormous force, with air superiority, money, weapons, technology, industry, and a huge army. Opposing it were stubborn guerrilla forces operating within difficult terrain, within a local population, driven by deep ideology and willingness to pay unimaginable prices. In the end, despite tens of thousands of American deaths and enormous costs, the United States withdrew without achieving its political goals.

The Soviet war in Afghanistan 1979–1989

The Soviet Union entered Afghanistan with the same conception: great force will defeat a weak people. Tanks, helicopters, special forces, control of cities and camps. But the mountains, the tribes, the faith, the patience, and the guerrilla wore down the empire. After a decade, the Soviets left exhausted, and the war was one of the early signs of the empire’s eventual collapse.

The American campaign in Afghanistan 2001–2021

The United States and its allies in Afghanistan repeated the same bitter lesson. Twenty years of war, trillions of dollars, armies, intelligence, contractors, local government, training, operations—and in the end the Taliban returned to power. Not because it was militarily stronger, but because such wars are not decided only on the battlefield. They are decided in consciousness, over time, legitimacy, holding the population, and the ability of one side to endure longer than the other.

The campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria 2014–present

The struggle against ISIS teaches a similar lesson. ISIS lost most of the territory it controlled, but it did not disappear. It became a network, cells, branches, an underground ideology. Force can conquer territory; it cannot alone uproot an idea, fear, despair, revenge, and extreme faith.

The Yemen war: Saudi Arabia and the Houthis 2015–present

In Yemen we also see how a strong, wealthy, and well-equipped coalition can become entangled for years against a local stubborn force, poorer in means but rooted in the land, faith, social structure, and willingness to absorb.

These are not distant examples. They are mirrors. And they reflect a simple truth to us: an organized state finds it very difficult to decisively defeat a civil-guerrilla-ideological struggle when the other side does not see death as a decisive factor. Against such an enemy, the very use of force may become the fuel of the struggle against us.

And here we find ourselves again, in Gaza and the north, trying to decisively defeat fundamentalist entities that do not surrender to death, that do not measure success as a modern state does, and that do not need a full military victory to present an achievement. It is enough for them to survive. It is enough for them to exhaust. It is enough for them to show that Israel does not know how to return its residents to their homes. It is enough for them to break public trust in the army and the state.

And this is exactly the danger in the north.

The mass panic of the northern citizens after the Sabbath in October did not stem only from the Hezbollah threat. It stemmed from a deep loss of trust. Loss of trust in the IDF. Loss of trust in leadership. Loss of trust in promises. The citizens of Israel saw with their own eyes how an entire border collapsed, how homes were breached, how families were murdered and kidnapped, how an entire state was not there at the moment of truth. And from that moment, the words “IDF ready,” “the system is prepared,” “there is control,” lost their weight.

Therefore, everyone who bears the burden of leadership, every head of authority, every minister, every officer, every public figure, must understand: security is not restored to citizens through more war slogans. Security is not restored by promising to destroy Lebanon. Security is not restored by speeches about a “heavy price.” Security returns when the citizen sees that the state acts with reason, responsibility, humility, honesty, and understanding of the limits of force.

The first step is ending the war in Gaza and returning the captives. Quiet in the south is a condition for quiet in the north. As long as the war in Gaza continues, as long as the captives are not home, as long as Israel sinks into moral, military, and political mud—the north will continue to be a hostage of the entire campaign.

An arrangement must be reached with Hamas, even at heavy prices, to bring about a withdrawal, return the captives, and close the southern arena. Not because Hamas is right. Not because Hamas deserves trust. But because a state must know what its supreme goal is. And the supreme goal now is the return of the captives, the return of citizens to their homes, preventing a regional war, and restoring Israel’s internal security.

Regarding Hezbollah—the army must prepare fully, deeply, thoroughly, and immediately for defense. Not for an offensive adventure, but for defense. It must be a living, trained, armored, present shield, responding within minutes to any threat to the border communities. It must build a defense system that does not rely on promises but on real readiness: nearby forces, protective infrastructure, organized evacuation systems, continuous communication with authorities, emergency drills, intelligence, alertness, and the ability for precise and measured response.

A broad attack on Hezbollah, as long as it does not solve the head question—Iran—will largely be a futile attack. It will bring enormous destruction, damage to the home front, soldier deaths, severe economic harm, political isolation, and possibly opening additional fronts. Israel is a small country, with limited resources, an economy already eroded, a society already torn, an army already under immense strain, and too many families already sent into bereavement.

We have no permission to participate in a regional war out of anger. We have no permission to gamble with the fate of the people out of a need to restore lost military honor. We have no permission to replace soul-searching with deep strikes.

We must stand for the defense of the land. Defend—yes. Prepare—yes. Strike those who actually endanger our citizens—yes. But to be drawn into a full-scale war, out of loss of reason and belief that this time force will solve everything—no.

This is not weakness. This is courage.

Courage is not always to charge. Sometimes courage is to hold the sword in its sheath when all the blood is boiling. Sometimes courage is to tell the public a hard truth: the reality in the north is complex. It did not begin yesterday. It will not end tomorrow. It requires defense, patience, agreements, rebuilding trust, and life alongside a continuing threat—until we succeed in shaping a broader political reality.

My mother, in her youth, remembers well the days when Metula was pelted with Katyushas. That was not a year ago. That was fifty years ago. The reality in the north is complex for generations. The people know this. The people are strong enough to hear the truth. The people do not need illusions sold to them. They need leadership that does not lie to them.

This people is capable of standing in a difficult reality. It stood before. It will stand again. But it is not capable of standing long-term with leadership that fears to tell the truth, with an army that tries to cover failure with another operation, and with a state that confuses security with revenge.

We must not fall into the terror trap. The purpose of terror is not only to kill. Its purpose is to manage our thoughts. To conquer our imagination. To cause us to react out of terror. To make us resemble it. To cause us to destroy ourselves in the name of self-defense.

If we allow the images of the Sabbath in October to manage our lives, we will live the Sabbath in October again and again. If we allow fear to determine our policy, we will generate more fear. If we allow trauma to lead the army, we will generate more trauma. Only when we look squarely at the pain, cry it out, recognize it, heal it, and choose life—can we begin to win.

I call on the leaders of the northern authorities, public leaders, army officers, members of Knesset, intellectuals, parents, reservists, everyone whose heart is still awake: do everything in your power to stop the descent into a full-scale war. Demand the return of the captives. Demand the end of the war in Gaza. Demand a real defense system in the north. Demand a true dialogue with the residents. Demand that the government stop fleeing into the fire.

The victory we need is not a victory of ruins.
Not a victory of corpses.
Not a victory of more bereaved families.
Not a victory of more evacuated settlements.
Not a victory of another generation of children growing up in fear.

The victory we need is the victory of reason.

A victory in which the people of Israel awaken from trauma, stop worshiping their power, return to their God, return to their destiny, and understand that there is no security without truth, no courage without humility, and no life in this land without Righteousness and Justice.

Blessings,
Nachaliel Shilo
Voice of Truth and Peace